US investment bank predicts: Increased tariffs may cause core prices to rise by 1.7%, GDP growth continues to decline.

[Coin World] On July 23, David Mericle, the chief economist at a certain investment bank in the U.S., predicted that the basic "reciprocal" tariff rate in the U.S. would increase from 10% to 15%, with tariffs on copper and critical minerals reaching 50%—this move could increase inflationary pressures and suppress economic growth. To reflect the new tariff assumptions and incorporate a "preliminary observation" of the impact of import tariffs, the investment bank also adjusted its forecasts for U.S. inflation and GDP growth. The bank lowered its core inflation forecast for 2025 from 3.4% to 3.3%, raised its 2026 forecast from 2.6% to 2.7%, and raised its 2027 forecast from 2.0% to 2.4%. Mericle stated that tariffs are expected to cumulatively push up core prices by 1.7% over 2-3 years. He also added that tariffs will reduce GDP growth by 1 percentage point this year, by 0.4 percentage points in 2026, and by 0.3 percentage points in 2027. Therefore, the investment bank has lowered its GDP growth forecast for 2025 to 1.0%.