Telegram Mini Program Data Plummets, Ecosystem Faces Severe Challenges

Recently, the user data for Telegram bots and mini-programs has shown a significant downward trend. Telegram mini-programs, which were once in the spotlight due to the explosion of Clicker games, are now facing serious challenges.

The TON Foundation's excessive reliance on the support strategy of Clicker games has led to a surge in users and data in the short term, but it has also sown the seeds of ecological imbalance. As users' freshness wears off, the homogeneity and lack of depth of Clicker games gradually become apparent, and the entire ecosystem begins to suffer backlash.

Currently, it is necessary to deeply reflect on the strategic mistakes of the TON Foundation and to seek new directions that can lead the next phase of development for the TON ecosystem.

1. The number of monthly active users has drastically declined

Monitoring of 820 Telegram projects over the past month shows that from October 1 to October 31, the cumulative monthly active users (MAU) reached 879,922,503. However, this massive number hides a sharp decline of 33%, with a total decrease of 295,971,112 MAU.

Through the analysis of daily data, it has been found that this decline shows an expanding trend. Especially for large projects with more than 5 million users, the initial rate of decline was relatively slow, but over time it began to accelerate, even leading to a more rapid decline later on, which had a more profound impact on the overall decrease in MAU.

2. Structural Changes Behind Project Price Fluctuations

Among the 820 monitored projects, 249 projects showed an increase in October, while 491 projects experienced a decline. The decline was most significant among the leading and historically established projects, reflecting a weakening of their growth momentum and a fading sense of novelty among users.

At the same time, some emerging projects are providing positive growth, injecting new vitality into the market. However, in terms of quantity and growth rate, the increase from these new projects is far from compensating for the impact caused by the decline of older projects. Among projects with a user base of less than one million, the number of declining projects still outnumbers the number of rising projects.

This phenomenon highlights the structural issues present in the TON ecosystem: the appeal of old projects is gradually weakening, the growth momentum of new projects is insufficient, and the entire ecosystem urgently needs new stimulation and direction.

3. Migration of Project Scale and Degradation of User Demand

Through the analysis of the project categorized by MAU, the following trends were discovered:

3.1 High-value projects flowing to lower tiers

• The number of projects with over 50 million MAUs decreased from 2 to 1.
• The number of projects with 10 million to 50 million MAUs has decreased from 18 to 15.
• The number of projects with 5 million to 10 million MAU increased from 22 to 31.

This trend reflects that the ecosystem is undergoing a top-down contraction.

The grade of medium-sized projects has明显 declined.

• The number of projects with 2 million to 5 million MAU has increased from 35 to 41, but the growth rate is relatively slow.
• The number of projects with 500,000 to 2 million MAU has increased from 78 to 99.

Medium-sized projects have also not been spared from the impact of declining activity; the increase in project numbers is mainly due to the downgrading of high-tier projects rather than their own growth.

The number of small projects has increased significantly.

• The number of projects with 100,000 to 500,000 MAU increased from 142 to 181.
• The number of projects with MAU levels below 20,000 increased from 84 to 161.

The increase in the number of small projects is not a sign of ecological prosperity, but rather a result of the overall decline in projects. Projects at all levels are generally facing the problem of decreased user activity, and the influx of new projects is insufficient to compensate for the loss of users, leading to a lack of fresh blood in the ecosystem.

4. The Dilemmas and Highlights of the OpenLeague Project

Despite the OpenLeague project having a certain level of recognition and user base in the market, it still cannot avoid the trend of declining users, and in some aspects, the decline is even more severe. The internal quality of the project is uneven, with a mix of good and bad.

However, it is worth noting that one or two standout projects have emerged, such as "AKEDO Game" and "RentTycoon," which have shown good growth momentum on certain days, bringing hope to the entire ecosystem.

5. Project User Dynamic Analysis

By studying the project changes from a week 30 days ago (September 24 - September 30) and the most recent week (October 25 - October 31), we can observe the following trends:

• User growth projects (Quadrant I and Quadrant II) are worth paying special attention to, as these projects demonstrate potential for sustained growth or rebound.
• Users of declining projects (third quadrant and fourth quadrant) need to analyze the reasons for the decline in depth and adjust strategies in a timely manner to recover users.
• Suspected traffic manipulation projects need to enhance data monitoring to ensure the authenticity of data and maintain the healthy development of the ecosystem.

6. Summary

Telegram mini-program applications are facing unprecedented difficulties, mainly concentrated in two aspects: commercialization and content.

Commercialization aspect:

• The existing commercialization model mainly relies on sales volume and coin listing, with the core focus on traffic monetization.
• The lack of specific application scenarios and consumption mechanisms after listing the coin has led to the rapid decline of the project.

In terms of content:

• Most leading games are primarily based on clickers and fission tasks, lacking playability.
• Users have a fixed stereotype towards Telegram games, mostly of the "sell after profit" type.

To change this situation, it is necessary to create truly playable games and rebuild users' trust. I look forward to seeing new content ideas and commercialization models that will revitalize these games and lead users into the real gaming world.