Mysterious trader bets on prediction market to win huge profits

A mysterious trader known as "Trump Whale" is expected to make nearly $50 million in profit by making a series of bold bets related to the presidential election on the prediction market.

The trader who calls himself "Théo" not only bets that Donald Trump will win the presidential election, but also that he will win the popular vote—an outcome that many political observers consider unlikely. He also bets that Trump will win key swing states such as Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin.

Théo has been placing bets on a certain cryptocurrency prediction market using four anonymous accounts. Since a report in mid-October drew attention to his wagers, he has been in contact with a certain media outlet.

In multiple emails, Théo stated that his bets are essentially wagers on the accuracy of polling data. He claims to be a wealthy Frenchman who has worked as a trader at several banks and indicated that he has been using his mathematical knowledge to analyze U.S. polling data since this summer.

He believes that the polls exaggerate the support for Vice President Kamala Harris. Unlike many armchair political commentators, he puts his analysis into practice, betting more than $30 million on Trump's victory.

On the night of the election, as the results were announced one after another, Théo appeared very excited. He said he woke up in the middle of the night in France to check the election results and felt very confident about his bets.

On the eve of the election, Théo predicted that Trump would receive 49% or 50% of the votes nationwide, defeating Harris. He also predicted that Trump would win six out of the seven battleground states.

As of Wednesday afternoon after election day, analysts predict that Trump will win the popular vote, receiving nearly 72 million votes, while Harris will receive 67.1 million votes, although several million ballots remain uncounted in some states. The betting market sees Trump's victory in the popular vote as a foregone conclusion.

Théo stated that he bet on Trump with his own money, aiming to make a big profit, and that he "absolutely has no political motives." However, it is unclear whether these claims are true, and it cannot be ruled out that Théo has connections to any political organization or Trump allies.

In his interactions with reporters, Théo criticized American opinion polls multiple times. He particularly criticized the opinion polls conducted by mainstream media, believing that these polls are biased towards the Democratic Party and often produce results that are favorable to Harris.

Théo believes that the polls fail to explain the "shy Trump voter effect." He speculates that either Trump supporters are unwilling to tell pollsters that they support the former president or they are unwilling to participate in the polls.

To solve this problem, Théo suggested using the so-called "neighboring resident method," which involves asking respondents which candidate they expect their neighbors to support. The idea behind this method is that people may be reluctant to disclose their own preferences, but when guessing their neighbors' voting intentions, they will indirectly reveal their own inclinations.

Théo cited several surveys using the neighbor's voting intention method, which showed that when asking neighbors about voting intentions, Harris's support rate was several percentage points lower than the results obtained by directly asking the respondents themselves.

For Théo, this proves that polling agencies have underestimated Trump's support rate once again. This data helped him make the decision to bet on Trump winning the popular vote.

Théo stated that he commissioned a large polling agency to conduct a survey to measure the neighbor effect, but he refused to disclose the name of the agency. He described the survey results as "shocking and favorable to Trump," but he could not share specific data due to confidentiality agreements.

Théo believes that American polling agencies should use the neighbor polling method in future surveys to avoid significant errors again. He emphasized: "If the latest opinion polls measure the neighbor effect, the direction of public opinion will be clearer."