Digital assets demonstrate resilience in turbulent times

In June 2025, the global financial markets underwent an epic stress test. Events such as geopolitical conflicts, trade frictions, and military actions occurred in succession, pushing the price of traditional safe-haven asset gold to near record highs. However, Bitcoin demonstrated surprising stability around the $105,000 mark. This performance, which is "desensitized" to geopolitical crises, reflects a profound change in the underlying logic of the cryptocurrency market.

I. Change in the Transmission Mechanism of Geopolitical Shocks

1. The "dulling effect" of conflict impact

Recently, the price fluctuations of Bitcoin have significantly narrowed in the context of geopolitical conflicts. This improvement in resilience is attributed to a qualitative change in market structure: the proportion of long-term holders has greatly increased, while the proportion of speculative chips has fallen to a five-year low. Institutional investors have effectively buffered the instantaneous impact of sudden events through a hedging system established in the derivatives market.

2. Paradigm Shift of Risk Aversion Logic

The "digital gold" attribute of Bitcoin is being redefined. With the expectations of the Federal Reserve lowering interest rates, the significant increase in the negative correlation between Bitcoin and the real yields of 10-year U.S. Treasuries brings it closer to being a "liquidity hedge tool" rather than just a safe-haven asset.

3. The "targeted absorption" of geopolitical premium

Geopolitical conflicts have accelerated the process of de-dollarization, with some countries beginning to use Bitcoin for settling commodity transactions. This penetration into the real economy has partially transformed geopolitical risks into rigid demand for Bitcoin.

2. Nested Game of Macroeconomic Cycles

1. The certainty dividend of a shift in monetary policy

The market has a high probability expectation for the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates in the third quarter, which is directly reflected in the steepening of the Bitcoin term structure. Historical data shows that, on average, Bitcoin's increase is significantly higher than that of gold three months before the start of a rate cut cycle.

2. Easing of inflationary pressures

The decline in the Core PCE Price Index and the Supply Chain Pressure Index has weakened Bitcoin's anti-inflation narrative, but unexpectedly released its "growth-sensitive asset" attributes. Some institutions have begun to incorporate Bitcoin into the growth stock valuation framework.

3. Opportunities Arising from Differences in Cross-Border Policies

The divergence of monetary policies among major economies has created new channels for cross-border capital to arbitrage through Bitcoin.

3. Deep Structural Changes in the Market

1. The "deleveraging" of position structure

The proportion of hedging positions in the futures market has increased, and the funding rate of perpetual contracts tends to stabilize. This change has made the market less reliant on leveraged funds for driving prices, significantly reducing extreme volatility.

2. The "layered reinforcement" of liquidity structure

The number of Bitcoins held in institutional custody accounts has significantly increased, forming a natural price stabilizer and enhancing the market's resilience.

3. The "Traditional Integration" of Valuation Systems

The correlation between Bitcoin and major stock indices has changed, and the market is beginning to reconstruct the valuation logic of Bitcoin using traditional asset pricing models.

4. Short-term Price Analysis

The price of Bitcoin is currently fluctuating near key moving averages, with a relatively balanced force between bulls and bears. The upper resistance level is in the range of $110,530 to $111,980, while the lower support level is near $100,000. It may continue to oscillate within this range in the short term.

V. Future Path Simulation

1. June to August: Consolidation and Accumulation Period
2. September to November: A major upward trend may begin.
3. Risk Reminder: Pay attention to regulatory trends and the potential pullback that may occur at the end of the year.

Conclusion

Against the backdrop of the reshaping of the global monetary order, Bitcoin is evolving from a speculative symbol into a liquidity bridge connecting the real economy. Its price stability is no longer solely derived from reduced volatility, but rather from the reconstruction of underlying value support. In this profound monetary transformation, Bitcoin is both a beneficiary of the collapse of credit in the old system and a builder of the infrastructure for the new order.