From Cyclic Theory to Strain Force: The "Survival of the Fittest" Era in the crypto world Has Arrived

In the development history of the cryptocurrency market, the four-year cycle of bull and bear markets has been revered by countless investors as a guideline. However, as we enter 2025, this long-standing "cycle myth" is quietly fading away, replaced by a more brutal and flexible new rule — survival of the fittest has become the mainstream survival logic in the crypto world.

1. Why have the bull and bear patterns become ineffective?

1. The effect of Bitcoin halving continues to weaken.

For veteran players, Bitcoin halving has been a key lever to drive the market. In 2012 and 2016, the issuance was drastically reduced from 50 coins and 25 coins to 25 coins and 12.5 coins respectively, with a 50% reduction directly igniting market enthusiasm and giving rise to two rounds of spectacular market trends.
However, the third halving in 2024 will only reduce the issuance from 6.25 coins to 3.125 coins, with a reduction rate of only 6.25%, which will have almost no stimulus on the price. The once strong "halving faith" is gradually cooling down and has become the first signal of loosening in the bull and bear cycles.

2. Bitcoin ETF Reshapes Market Landscape

The launch of ETFs acts like a super channel that connects traditional finance with the crypto market, bringing a massive amount of institutional funds into what was once a "niche pond."
In the past, after Bitcoin rose, funds would naturally flow into altcoins, creating a general uptrend; now, almost all new funds are anchored to Bitcoin, and altcoins have become "marginal players"—just like a large supermarket alongside a highway sucking away all the foot traffic, leaving the surrounding small vendors to struggle in solitude.
More importantly, the continuous influx of traditional capital makes it difficult for the crypto world to replicate the long bear markets of the past that lasted for up to three years. Although macroeconomic fluctuations will still trigger short-term downturns (such as the noticeable profit window that appeared only from October to December last year), the overall transition between bull and bear markets is becoming increasingly distant.

2. New Opportunities in the Crypto World: Big Chances Hidden in Small Markets

Although the current market rarely sees large-scale rebounds of several times, fragmented opportunities for making money are actually more concentrated: in November 2024, meme coins will explode, in December, AI concepts will take over, and in January 2025, intelligent agent concepts will become the new focus... These recurring hot spots signify that the crypto world is fully shifting from "bull-bear cycle driven" to "multiple hot spots rotation".

In this new track, investors who rigidly adhere to cycle theory will gradually be eliminated, while those who can quickly iterate their understanding and keep up with market rhythms will be able to capture their own opportunities in the rotations.

The end of the bull-bear cycle is not a decline of the crypto world, but a necessary path for the market to mature. For investors, rather than reminiscing about the past "laying down to win era", it is better to cultivate the hard power of "survival of the fittest"—after all, what can traverse cycles is never the rules themselves, but the ability to adapt to changes. #Gate & WLFI USD1 积分计划 #