2025 Crypto Market Outlook: Four Scenarios and Eleven Predictions

Since the launch of the Bitcoin ETF in early 2024, the crypto market has experienced a strong surge. Bitcoin has reached an all-time high, driving the altcoin market as it enters the volatile second and third quarters of 2024. Currently, the price of Bitcoin hovers around $90,000.

It is worth noting that altcoin markets often begin when Bitcoin reaches a peak. The first wave is Bitcoin hitting $69,000, and the second wave is hitting $100,000.

The next round of altcoin market trends is likely to occur after Bitcoin stabilizes at $100,000, expected in the first quarter of 2025. However, it may also replay the script of the second and third quarters of 2024. Here are four possible scenarios:

Scenario 1: Bitcoin and altcoins rise together. The market continues to rise in 2025, entering a new round of altcoin trends. Bitcoin continues to rise, driving all tokens to perform well, repeating the trend of the past two months with a probability of 30-40%.

Strategy: Choose quality altcoins and buy on dips.

Scenario 2: Bitcoin rises, and a few altcoins rise as well. Repeating the 2024 trend, volatility will increase in the coming months, but the overall outlook is more bullish. It is necessary to select well-performing tokens with a probability of 50-60% for (.

Strategy: Selectively buy altcoins at lows. Avoid popular tracks and look for the next "get-rich-quick coin".

Scenario 3: Bitcoin rises, altcoins generally fall )20-30% probability (.

Strategy: Sell all altcoins and reduce the investment proportion in altcoins. If the altcoins held do not rise for a long time, it may be necessary to sell them all.

Scenario 4: Bitcoin falls, altcoins generally decline. The market has peaked with a 10-20% probability of ).

Due to favorable macro conditions, the new historical high for Bitcoin may not take as long to break through as it did in 2024. Last summer, when the ETF was just launched, traditional financial institutions were still promoting Bitcoin to their clients. Now, the external perception of the importance of Bitcoin has changed.

The new government has brought renewed attention to the digital asset space, and the U.S. president's frequent discussions about Bitcoin have made it easier to persuade people to buy Bitcoin. This regime change is extremely significant. Therefore, Bitcoin will continue to maintain its upward momentum in 2025. The situation is similar for altcoins, but with some differences.

Overall, the Bitcoin increase in 2025 is expected to surpass that of 2024. Altcoins will rise overall, although there may be corrections, but the extent could be smaller than in 2024.

( risk factors

Cycle Top: We are currently far from reaching the cycle top, but continuous assessment is needed. The top is not a specific event, but rather a range that gradually approaches over time.

Bitcoin Reserve Plan: If the new president completely ignores the reserve plan, it will be a bearish factor. The more likely scenario is that the plan will be delayed. As long as it is beneficial for Bitcoin, it looks bearish in the short term but bullish in the long term.

Supply Risk: The summer of 2024 experienced a frenzy in the macro environment, but the market failed to benefit due to a large release of supply. Supply risks are always present and require close attention.

Macroeconomic Risk: The expected interest rate cut will be limited. As long as interest rates continue to decline, liquidity will improve. Unless interest rates are raised or the rate cuts are paused, the macroeconomic environment should be favorable for digital assets. The resurgence of inflation is the main risk.

) Token Recommendation

1. AI: The next wave is coming. Preferred application technologies, swarms, gaming, and consumer-centric AI projects.

2. DeFi: Will continue to be an important narrative, but the difficulty of investment is relatively high. The risk-reward ratio is not ideal.

3. L1: May make a comeback. Areas long ignored by the market hold enormous opportunities.

4. NFT Tokens and Game Tokens: NFT tokens are worth paying attention to. It is interesting to delve into the upcoming token issuance of game projects.

5. Other Narratives: Data tokens, Meme, DePIN, Ordinals, etc.

( 11 Predictions for 2025

1. A certain company will implement DePIN in some way, possibly through acquisition.
2. A certain trading platform will lose market share of the largest exchange.
3. VR makes new progress, and metaverse tokens are reborn.
4. ICOs are rising again.
5. There will be no altcoin market on the Ethereum chain.
6. The price of a certain public chain token has reached double digits.
7. Ethereum ETF staking has been approved, leading to more yield products and yield aggregators for staking other tokens.
8. Well-known artists use NFTs and tokens to maintain fan engagement and provide rewards.
9. Bitcoin reached $200,000.
10. More CEOs/founders of public chain organizations resign.
11. A certain public chain failed in the competition with L1, and another L1 took its place.

![Year-end series: 4 scenarios and 11 predictions for the 2025 annual market])https://img-cdn.gateio.im/webp-social/moments-c7157de9b3bb195812bc10c95d8d51b8.webp###