The Truth at the End of the Financialization Cycle: Liquidity Illusion Conceals Structural Collapse

Currently, we are at the tail end of an extremely financialized cycle. The market is rife with speculative frenzy, with certain cryptocurrencies skyrocketing tenfold in just a month, only to plummet 20% in a single day. While this phenomenon is surprising, it actually reflects deeper issues.

On the surface, this appears to be a bubble market. However, the bubble is just a façade. The real issues lie in excessive Liquidity, market distortions, and a civilizational system that is gradually collapsing under the weight of its own contradictions.

Despite the S&P 500 index repeatedly hitting new highs, this so-called "historical high" is nothing but a liquidity illusion. When considering inflation factors, the S&P 500 index has actually shown no substantial growth since 2000. This is not true economic growth, but a direct reflection of the expansion of the money supply.

The current economic situation faces structural problems, and simple interest rate adjustments can no longer solve them. We need to focus on the following three key issues:

1. The Slow Collapse of the Debt System

The modern monetary order is on the brink of collapse. This system is built on an ever-expanding base of debt and now faces irreconcilable internal contradictions. Past economic stimulus measures, bailout plans, and other strategies have been based on a false assumption: the more debt, the more prosperous the economy.

However, this illusion is disintegrating. Productivity growth is stagnating, and demographic changes are contrary to this system. The working-age population is decreasing, the dependency ratio is rising, and consumption is increasingly reliant on credit rather than income. This economic machine is aging and can no longer self-repair.

The financial crisis of 2008 should have burst this bubble, but it did not. The COVID-19 pandemic exposed the incompetence of governments on a moral level. Many governments' responses indicate that the right to survival is not equal for everyone. This has led to a decline in government legitimacy. Today's institutions resemble hollow shells maintained by surveillance, subsidies, and manipulation of public opinion.

2. The Closure of Intelligent Technology

Discussions about Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) remain at a naively optimistic level. Most people believe that AI will become as widespread as Excel or cloud services, serving as a tool to enhance productivity. However, this notion is overly idealistic.

If machines gain the ability for self-improvement, capable of simulating complex systems and designing new types of weapons, they are unlikely to become open-source technology. Like nuclear technology and gene editing technology, powerful AI will ultimately become a tool for national control.

The general public may only have access to strictly limited AI fragments, while truly powerful systems will be hidden away for strategic purposes. Although most people may still hold other ideas, beliefs ultimately cannot compete with infrastructure.

3. Time Becomes the New Currency

Traditionally, money can buy comfort, safety, and social status, but it cannot buy time. This situation is changing. With the development of AI decoding genomes and synthetic biology, we are entering an era where lifespan extension may become an engineered advantage.

However, this is not a universal public health revolution. True lifespan extension, cognitive enhancement, and embryo optimization technologies will be extremely expensive, subject to strict regulation, and politically controversial. Governments around the world are already overwhelmed by aging populations and are unlikely to encourage universal longevity.

Therefore, the rich will not only be wealthier economically but also biologically different. The ability to alter the human genetic blueprint will create a new economic class: those who can escape the natural curve of death through biotechnology patents. This future cannot be widely promoted, but is rather a path of privilege.

Three Tracks of Future Society

The current society is undergoing differentiation into different development trajectories, each with its unique political and economic characteristics:

1. Anesthetizing the Masses: Providing cheap entertainment and stimulation through AI-generated content, social media, virtual reality, etc., making the majority politically irrelevant.

2. Cognitive Elites: A minority group enhanced biologically and intellectually, pursuing control over biology and death rather than mere economic returns.

3. New Hermits: A group that chooses to disconnect from mainstream society, seeking meaning outside of machines and attempting to preserve humanized experiences.

In this polarized world, most people may unknowingly become products of the system rather than participants. For the few who can foresee the future, choosing to opt-out is no longer a neutral choice, but a form of resistance.

Clear Strategy in a Fragmented World

In this noisy market, the real challenge is not how to "beat the market", but how to prepare for asymmetrical situations in a system that no longer serves its participants. The key lies in systemic thinking, rather than simple price trend analysis.

Most people may not realize these changes until it is too late. Because living a life in ignorant confusion is more comfortable than facing challenges with awareness. However, for those who can perceive the future, now is the time to rethink strategies and prepare for the upcoming upheaval.